Heifers play a role in cow herd inventory and the feedlot. Heifer placement in the feedlot is an early indicator of cow herd expansion trends. Two pieces from Oklahoma State University and Nebraska Extension explore these dynamics.
by Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
The latest Cattle on Feed report showed that feedlot inventories on November 1, 2024, were 11.99 million head, equal to one year ago. Feedlot inventories have been about equal to the previous year for each of the past 14 months. October feedlot placements were 105.3% of year-ago levels, slightly higher than pre-report expectations. Placements in October were likely enhanced by the early movement of feeder cattle in October. In Oklahoma, October auction volumes were up by 45.2% compared to earlier in the year. Auction volumes dropped sharply in November. The larger, earlier fall run of calves likely means that auction volumes will be smaller for the remainder of 2024. Total feedlot placements this year have been 1.1% less year-over-year.
Feedlot marketings in October were 104.7% of last year. However, October 2024 had one additional business day compared to last year, so daily average feedlot marketings were equal to one year ago. Total feedlot marketings this year have been down slightly, just 0.1% less than last year.
Recent slaughter data for October 2024 showed that heifer slaughter was 32.5% of total cattle slaughter for the month. The 12-month moving average of heifer slaughter was 31.8% of total slaughter for the past year. With just two months of data left in 2024, this is a good estimate of the annual value of heifer slaughter as a percent of total cattle slaughter. This estimate is included in Figure 1 (shown in red) and shows that heifer slaughter rates continue to increase. The 2024 heifer percentage of total cattle slaughter is likely to be the highest level since 2004.
Cattle cycle herd dynamics depend on the dynamics of female cattle, including both cull cows and heifers. Declining cull cow rates is often the leading indicator of producer herd rebuilding intentions. Beef cow slaughter is down 17.9% year-over-year in the first 45 weeks of 2024. This is projected to result in an annual culling rate of about 10%, roughly equal to the long-term average and down from the recent high of over 13% in 2022. During herd expansion, the cow culling rate typically drops below nine percent for three to four years.
The biggest component of herd expansion is heifer retention. The heifer slaughter rates in Figure 1 indicate that no heifer retention is occurring yet. Heifer retention usually lags changes in cow culling. Herd expansion results in decreased heifer slaughter rates similar to the 1991–1996 and the 2014–2017 periods. Current heifer slaughter rates suggest that the beef cow has continued to decrease in 2024 and that prospects for herd expansion in 2025 are very limited.
Cow Herd Expansion Considerations
by Alfredo DiCostanzo, Nebraska Extension Educator, and Connor Biehler, Nebraska Extension Educator
Knowing the factors and costs of raising replacement heifers provides a basis for continued efficiency improvements in the beef industry. The US beef herd inventory was at 28.2 million cows as of January 2024. During the last peak of the cattle cycle in January 2019, the US beef herd inventory reached 31.6 million cows. That is a drop of 3.4 million cows (11% of the inventory) in five years!
Will the US beef industry rebuild to the same inventory as in 2019? Likely not! Many factors will affect the size of the US beef herd at the next peak. Some might consider that beef-on-dairy crosses will likely affect herd expansion. Our perspective on this is that unless dairy cows are used to produce fullblood beef breed embryos, the effects of breeding dairy cows to beef sires on beef production are already absorbed by the industry.
We submit a few reasons for this. Firstly, the US dairy herd is static at nine million cows; thus, the number of replacement heifers needed to maintain this inventory is set at somewhere between three and four million. This figure has not changed. What changed is the quality (muscling size and distribution) and quantity (greater dressing percentage) of beef derived from the non-replacement breeding of dairy cows. These effects are already built into beef production.
Secondly, as greater beef production results from future beef herd expansion, beef cattle prices will find new levels reflective of production. This will limit interest in using beef sires on dairy cows by dairy producers to the proportion of the herd not needed to breed for replacement purposes.
Also, because of production efficiency gained through genetics, selection pressure resulting from culling less productive cows during droughts, and technological advances, the US beef cow herd will likely achieve a lower peak resulting from the next expansion.
Since 1975, each US beef cow inventory peak has diminished from 45.7 million in 1975, to 39.2 in 1982, to 35.3 in 1996, to 32.7 in 2005, and to 31.6 in 2019. The peak of each cycle since 1982 was from one to three million cows smaller than the previous; the most recent cycles show smaller drops in the peak from previous cycles.
So, what is the expectation for peak inventory during the next cycle? Although difficult to predict because of the reasons mentioned above, and because the age of cow-calf operators is also advancing with fewer young people entering the business, it is likely that the beef industry will expect modest expansion during the next and ensuing cattle cycles. It is quite possible that the US beef herd will never reach beyond 29 million cows again.
If that is the expectation, then how does a cow-calf operator prepare for expansion? At a starting point of 28 million beef cows (round figures), every percentage loss in productivity (fetal, birth, pre-weaning, pre-breeding, or pre-harvest mortality) represents 280,000 calves. Therefore, if the next herd expansion is to reach 29 million cows by the next cycle peak, then the beef industry has a choice: 1) prevent one million heifers from entering the feedlot, 2) improve survival and breeding success by four percentage units in existing inventories of heifers destined for herd replacement, or 3) a combination thereof.
Raising more calves than needed for harvest or breeding is a necessity of the system. Building efficiency while rebuilding the herd should prevent excessive inventory swings that lead to excessive price swings. Lower cycle-over-cycle swings in beef cow inventory since the peak of 1975 are reflective of a unified commitment by the industry to greater production efficiency.
Knowing the factors and costs of raising replacement heifers provides a basis for continued efficiency improvements in the beef industry. A recent experience in developing heifers at the Haskell Agriculture Laboratory in Concord, Nebraska, provides an analysis of the process of growing replacement heifers. The analysis is represented here for educational purposes and is intended to motivate producers to consider the costs of preparing for herd expansion.
Overall, 87 heifers were considered in this analysis. Heifers were enrolled by producers from various regions. Heifers were housed in pens and fed a diet based on corn silage, alfalfa hay, wet distillers grains, and a mineral supplement. Heifers were prepared for timed artificial insemination (AI) a second time if they failed to conceive after a first attempt at timed AI. The average heifer spent 220 days in the program. A total of 71 heifers were confirmed pregnant (82%). Costs were $627 per heifer ($2.85/heifer/day), or $768 per pregnancy. Therefore, under conditions of the program (82% pregnancy rate), if a heifer was retained in the fall of 2023 for replacement, the total cost of her first pregnancy would be $2,400 ($1,620 was the value of the heifer in the fall of 2023 and it cost $768 to achieve pregnancy).
As producers look at current prices, there may be an opportunity to retain heifers at similar prices as a year ago and expect to spend from $2,300 to $2,600 to raise a pregnant heifer. However, a thorough analysis of critical control points (energy, protein and mineral supply, water quality, winter housing, heat abatement, and gentle handling) to ensure breeding success in 2025 is in order.
